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EXPLAINING CRIMINAL CAREERS2025|PDF|Epub|mobi|kindle电子书版本百度云盘下载

JOHN F.MACLEOD 著
出版社： OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
ISBN：0199697248
出版时间：2012
标注页数：256页
文件大小：10MB
文件页数：272页
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图书目录

1. Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories1

Background1

Blumstein and Cohen (1979)2

The National Academy Panel4

Explaining the Growth in Recidivism Probabilities6

Explaining the Individual Offending Frequency11

Objections to Criminal Career Research14

Criminal Career Research in the Last 20 Years17

Aims of this Book18

Methodological Notes20

2. An Analysis of the Offenders Index23

Sources of Data23

Recidivism26

Reconviction Rate34

Reconciling the Risk and Rate Categories39

Gender40

Is Criminality Constant over the Cohorts?43

3. The Theory and a Simple Model47

Orientation47

Introduction47

The Assumptions of our Theory49

Explaining the Age-Crime Curve50

The Rise in Crime from 10 to 17 Years of Age56

Modelling the Age-Crime Curve59

The 100,000 Active Prolific Offenders68

Corollaries and Comments70

Conclusion73

4. Criminal Careers of Serious, Less Serious, and Trivial Offenders75

Orientation75

Introduction75

Offenders with Custody at First Court Appearance76

Custody Rates78

Serious Offenders79

Less Serious Offenders81

Serious Offences82

Simplified Modelling of Convictions for Serious Offences83

Simplified Modelling of all Convictions88

Versatility or Specialization in Offending90

Trivial Offenders98

Conclusion105

5. Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending?107

Orientation107

Introduction107

Possible Types of Age Dependence109

Testing the Theories111

Conclusion119

6. Characteristics of Individuals123

Orientation123

Introduction123

The Rationale and Development of OASys124

Analysis of the Pilot OASys Data128

The Distribution of Section 11 Scores131

Is there Structure in the Section 11 Information in OASys?138

Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Section 11 Questions140

Conclusions from the OASys Pilot Data Analysis142

Analysis of Operational OASys Data144

Analysis of April 2004 PNC Conviction Data149

Conclusions154

7. Applications for Managing the Criminal Justice System155

Orientation155

Introduction155

The Flow Model156

Predicting the Prison Population158

The DNA Database164

Conclusion167

8. Criminal Policy Implications169

Orientation169

Introduction169

Overview of the Theory169

The Categories170

Areas where Policy could Influence Crime172

Childhood Early Interventions173

Early Career Interventions174

Increasing the Efficiency of Conviction175

Offender Treatment Programmes176

Prolific and other Priority Offenders176

Implications and Uses of the Theory180

Frequently Asked Questions184

9. Summary and Conclusions187

Summary187

The Origin of the Offender Categories197

Criminality198

Recidivism199

Conviction Rate λ200

The Effects of Formal Warnings and Cautions201

The Criminal Career Debate203

Conclusions208

Appendix: Mathematical Notes211

Introduction211

Constant Probability Systems212

Allocation of Offenders to the Risk/Rate Categories215

An Alternative Modelling Approach217

Incapacitation219

Steady State Solutions223

Estimating the Active Offender Population Size226

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Recidivism Parameters227

Bibliography231

Index243