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第一章 宏观经济波动的微观经济基础1

一、国有企业激励约束机制发生变化1

1．Changes of Incentive and Restrictive Mechanism for SOEs1

Chapter1 Micro Base of Macro Fluctuation1

Preface Market-oriented Reform and Macro-economic Stability1

前言 市场化与宏观经济稳定1

二、国有企业成本收益最大化8

2．Cost-benefit Maximization of SOEs8

三、国有企业的高负债行为14

3．Heavy Indebtedness Behavior of SOEs14

4．Interaction between the Behavior of Non-stateowned-economy and Macro Economy20

四、非国有经济行为与宏观经济的互动影响20

1．Basic Judgement29

Chapter2 the Basic State of Macro-ceonomic Operation29

第二章 宏观经济运行的基本态势29

一、基本判断29

2．Supply-side Analysis35

二、供给面分析35

3．Demand-side Analysis41

三、需求面分析41

4．Macro-control Policy Analysis49

四、政策调控分析49

1．Statement of the Problem59

Chapter3 Income Difference，Interest Rate and Consumption59

一、问题的提出59

第三章 收入差异、利率和消费59

2．Analysis of the Determinant Variables of Consumer s Behavior62

二、消费者行为决定变量的分析62

3．Income Growth，Difference，Uncertainty and the Effect of Interest Rate on Consumption and Savings65

三、收入增长、差异、不确定及利率对消费和储蓄的影响65

4．Macro-effect of Consumption Behavior and Policy Choice71

四、消费行为的宏观效果与政策选择71

一、体制变革与投资74

Chapter4 System，Investment and Macro Fluctuation74

第四章 体制、投资与宏观波动74

1．System Transformation and Investment74

二、国有及非国有投资与增长周期76

2．State-owned and Non-state-owned Investment and Growth Cycle76

三、经济运行：投资与其他因素的比较81

3．Economic Operation：a Comparison between Investment and other Factors81

四、投资与经济增长及物价：经验检验87

4．Investment and Economic Growth and Price：Empirical Test87

五、投资启动与宏观经济政策选择91

5．Investment Start-up and Macro-economic Policy Choice91

Chapter5 Trade Shock and Macro Stability95

一、短期波动95

第五章 外贸冲击与宏观稳定95

1．Short-term Fluctuation95

二、长期趋势107

2．Long-term Trend107

三、贸易自由化浪潮119

3．the Wave of Trade Liberalization119

1．Real Unemployment Scale and Unemployment Rate136

Chapter6 Unemployment in Economic Growth136

一、真实失业规模和失业率136

第六章 经济增长中的失业及其治理136

二、总量性失业、行业垄断性失业与制度性失业145

2．Aggregate-related Unemployment，Industry-monopolyrelated Unemployment and Institution-related Unemployment145

三、中国宏观失业模型及其政策涵义152

3．China s Macro Unemployment Model and its Policy Implications152

Chapter7 Fiscal System Reform and Macro-ceonomic Stability163

1．Stability is a Kind of Public Goods163

一、稳定是一种公共物品163

第七章 财政制度变革与宏观经济稳定163

2．Stabilizing Function of Public Finance167

二、财政的稳定功能167

3．Stability-aimed Fiscal System Reform170

三、为了稳定的财政改革170

4．Stability Implication of the Changes from Fiscal Decentralization to Tax Division System179

四、从分灶吃饭到分税制的稳定涵义179

5．Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Investment Multiplier183

五、扩张性财政政策与投资乘数183

6．Tax Rate，Expected Profit and Fiscal Policy189

六、税率、预期利润与财政政策189

7．Efficiency Loss and Macro Outcome of Unfair Tax Burden196

七、税负不公平的效率损失与宏观结果196

8．Macro Fiscal Policy Combined with Market-oriented Reform200

八、与市场化改革相结合的宏观财政政策200

1．1990s：Finance-leading Economic Cycle206

Chapter8 Financial Growth，Financial Structure and Physical(Real)Economy206

第八章 金融增长、金融结构与实质经济206

一、90年代：金融主导的经济周期206

二、金融增长中的金融深化和金融泡沫208

2．Financial Deepening and Financial Bubble in Financial Growth208

3．Macro Stability and Innovation-blocked under the Condition of Restricted Competition217

三、受限制竞争下的宏观稳定和创新受阻217

四、符号经济和实质经济224

4．Symbol Economy and Physical (Real)Economy224

第九章 人民币汇率变动与宏观经济稳定230

Chapter9 RMB Exchange Rate Changes and Micro-economic Stability230

1．Nominal Exchange Rate of RMB230

一、人民币名义汇率230

2．Real Exchange Rate of RMB236

二、人民币实际汇率236

3．Interest Rate Parity and a Balance between Domestic and Foreign Economy247

三、利率平价与国内外经济平衡247

Chapter10 the Issue of Inflation and Unemployment292

1．China s Inflation and Unemployment：Unverifiable Relations292

一、中国的通货膨胀与失业：无法证实的关系292

第十章 通货膨胀与失业292

二、双轨制：通货膨胀的制度背景313

2．Dual Track System：Institutional Background against Inflation313

3．Aggregate Demand Function320

三、总需求函数320

四、总供给函数330

4．Aggregate Supply Function330

5．Determinant of Inflation Rate338

五、通货膨胀率的决定338

Chapter11 Institution Shock and Deflation355

第十一章 制度冲击、贸易冲击与通货紧缩355

1．Clearing the Doubt about Deflation356

一、通货紧缩释疑356

2．Modest Variation Range of Deflation and a Historical Review of China s Deflation361

二、通货紧缩的适度区间与中国通货紧缩的历史考察361

3．Institution Shock，Trade Shock and an Analysis of Forming Mechanism of Deflation364

三、制度冲击、贸易冲击与通货紧缩形成的机理分析364

4．Effect of Deflation377

四、通货紧缩的影响377

5．Conclusions381

五、结论381

1．Fluctuation of China s Macro-economy in 1990s385

Chapter12 Fluctuation，Expectation and Macro Stability Policy385

第十二章 波动、预期与宏观稳定政策工具385

一、90年代中国宏观经济的波动385

2．Expectation and Positive Feedback：Behavior of the Public Facing Market Fluctuation397

二、预期与正反馈：面对市场波动的公众行为397

3．Policy Tools for Macro Stability405

三、宏观稳定的政策工具405

1．Economic Development Pattern of Countries in Transition and Developing Countries：History and Reality424

Chapter13 Transition and Development424

第十三章 转型与发展——转型国家与发展中国家的宏观经济特征与政策424

一、转型国家及发展中国家的经济发展模式：历史与现实424

2．the Role of Government in Economic Development：Development and Obstruction429

二、政府在经济发展中的作用：发展与阻碍429

3．Income Distribution among Regions and Inhabitants：Hypothesis and the Test of it432

三、收入在地区和居民之间的分配：假说与检验432

4．Foreign Trade，Capital Flow and External Debt：Shock and Reaction436

四、国际贸易、资本流动与外债：冲击与反应436

5．Conclusions438

五、结论438